Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 01 2023 05:02:15 AWUS01 KWNH 010502 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-011000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0402 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 101 AM EDT Thu Jun 01 2023 Areas affected...Northeast TX Panhandle...Northwest OK... South-central KS... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 010500Z - 011000Z SUMMARY...Repeating thunderstorms along moisture axis pose possible localized flash flooding risk overnight. DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts a pair of MCV lifting north-northeast and northeast across the Northern TX Panhandle, the former is weakening/shearing out as meso-high/outflow boundary has raced eastward into the northeast Panhandle and OK Panhandle.=20 Here it intersects an remaining instability axis from NW OK into SW OK with 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE to reinvigorate updraft development. Downstream the LLJ veers across north-west to north-central OK, generally aligned with mid to upper level highly diffluent (nearly 180 degrees) environment. Strong divergence, but also weaker overall flow regime has allowed for slowing of storm motions with deep layer supporting northward cell motions is trying to equal out 15-20kts of south-southeaster flow for southward propagation.=20 As such, WAA/isentropic ascent along this WSW to ENE boundary (HHF to WLD) will help to maintain/redevelop thunderstorms along the axis throughout the overnight hours while the MCV/forcing lifts northward. Moisture has already pooled along the axis with Total PWat values of 1.6, likely to steadily increase throughout the evening. As such, while instability is weaker/isentropic ascent and moisture convergence should help to maintain cycling updrafts with rates of 1.5 to 2". As the MCV(s) pass, veering of the LLJ will help to support back-buidling along the upwind edge. As such, streaks of 2-3" totals across NW OK into S KS are possible. Incidents of flash flooding are likely to be limited areally due to increasingly drier ground conditions over W OK/west-central KS. AHPS precipitation anomaly analysis denotes streaks of above average precip along the northern row of counties in NW OK/southern row in south-central KS as well as near I-40 in W OK...where some of the MCSs have saturated grounds over the last few weeks. Logically, these areas will have the higher possibility of incidents; though there is moderate to high uncertainty on the axis of the heaviest rainfall move eastward.=20 While current convective trends in RADAR/satellite favor streaks toward the north; strongest flux convergence will be south near and just north of I-40 near the track of the other MCV currently near AMA. Given these factors, flash flooding is only considered possible through the overnight period. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4kmwMWOa2NNAoB0nDo2kKJHM1sxjErf9I7nSPJx3wIkqzAbCpzFXwVpf-wWjaL6gjWhM= E9xmS5Qr6brM7JEXzk-NBPc$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37739759 37269706 36659739 36229777 35679846=20 35079939 34830041 34870129 35540122 36270095=20 37030100 37380062 37539945 37679868=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .