Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 01 2023 04:00:45 AWUS01 KWNH 010400 FFGMPD MOZ000-IAZ000-010729- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0401 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1200 AM EDT Thu Jun 01 2023 Areas affected...Northern Missouri...South Central Iowa... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 010329Z - 010729Z SUMMARY...Isentropic ascent along trailing edge of MCV/shortwave and favorable downstream flow poses some back-building and training over the next few hours. Drier ground conditions may limit areal coverage, but localized flash flooding is possible. DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR loop continues to denote cooling/expanding cluster of thunderstorms across northern MO at this time. A defined MCV is also noted along/north of the cluster in S Iowa, lifting slowly north-northeast. RAP 850-700mb analysis supported by VWP network (though VWP is about 5kts stronger through depth) denotes the cluster is at the eastern edge of 20-25 kt LLJ, though weak veering through depth depicts solid convergent/confluence toward the MCV. This is supporting isentropic ascent convergence along the upwind edge of the complex supporting backbuilding. Deep layered flow, while weak is supporting a more favorable environment of SW to NE flow and cell orientation is favoring this track to support training environment. RAP analysis suggests instability is waning/reducing with time, but a pocket of 750-1000 J/kg resides upstream within the LLJ axis to continue support for additional upstream development. Pooled moisture with total PWats of 1.5-1.7" and that 20-25kt inflow, support rates of 1.5-2"/hr observed in RADAR with a few pockets of 1.5-2.5" already observed. While Hi-Res CAMs suggest weakening environment, a few more persistent (but less reliable) solutions from the Canadian Regional and FV3LAM maintain the complex. 00z ARW/ARW2 show an environment for WAA redevelopment later this evening into south-central IA, but it is already ongoing, suggesting poorer assimilation, but a favorable environment for this complex to maintain over the next few hours. So pockets of 2-4" are possible based on current observational trends with support of those aforementioned CAMs.=20 Main limiting factor is the area of concern aligns with the highest FFG values in the region at 2.5"/hr and over 3"/3hrs which seems solid given recent dry conditions. So all considered and incident or two of low-end magnitude flash flooding is considered possible Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!70uQWCJZI5m0NfBRHzdBVDlMWsTEJusd_r2U-9yRvdJg4eFqy4s7MjMxwyDCa4wUxTRB= LRA0dPYTJ5T6jlXFK-lKniU$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX... ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41369360 41259270 40659240 39969279 39639347=20 39649410 39979448 40459452 41069415=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .