Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 01 2023 00:50:41

AWUS01 KWNH 010050
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-010448-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0400
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
849 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023

Areas affected...the Nebraska Panhandle, southwestern South
Dakota, and far southeastern Wyoming

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010048Z - 010448Z

Summary...Slow-moving thunderstorms are producing very heavy rain
rates currently, and should continue to do so for the next 3-4
hours.  Flash flooding is possible beneath the heavier/stronger
cores.

Discussion...Convective activity continues to expand in coverage
over the past 30 minutes.  The storms are in a very weakly sheared
environment due to weak steering flow aloft, although modestly
increasing low-level flow (into the 25 knot range) is likely
promoting at least localized organization with storms across the
discussion area.  The environment immediately downstream of the
storms is characterized by 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 0.9 inch PW
values, which is enough to promote locally heavy rainfall given
the slow storm motions.  A few spots of 1+ inch/hr rain rates are
occurring beneath the heavier cores, and these trends should
continue in the short term.

Models/CAMs suggest that the ongoing thunderstorm activity should
be primarily diurnally driven and continue over the next 3-4
hours.  20-25 knots of low-level shear may promote maintenance of
clusters or linear segments for an hour or two after sunset,
although general model concensus is that weaking instability
should result in a lessened heavy rainfall threat especially after
about 04Z or so.  The MRMS-estimated rainfall rates are exceeding
FFG thresholds (0.75-1.5 inch/hr) in a few spots and should
continue to do so occasionally until storms begin to weaken.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-ibR99h0yCRSEZoqV8E_T-8FnLqZ_ZHkdGp6qP72_JOR_UiP--_yEvLSgvsLq17UGzBY=
-dymFI_Up_M6IEa42o79Cxo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BOU...CYS...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   44440189 44330075 43820053 43050189 42350251=20
            41330316 40860408 41400472 42100457 43070416=20
            44070316=20

=3D =3D =3D
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