Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 01 2023 00:27:41 AWUS01 KWNH 010027 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-010526- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0399 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 827 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023 Areas affected...eastern New Mexico, west Texas, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 010026Z - 010526Z Summary...Additional rounds of convection are likely from the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles southwestward through eastern New Mexico through 03-04Z tonight. The flash flood risk will likely continue in these areas. Discussion...Ongoing convective activity has congealed into a series of forward-propagating linear segments and clusters extending along the Texas/New Mexico border region from near I-40 and Clovis southward to Hobbs. Backbuilding upstream of this lead convection has been noted across east-central New Mexico, while additional convection was located near the TransPecos. Ongoing storms have produced areas of 1-3 inch rainfall totals across much of eastern New Mexico this afternoon, with localized areas of 5 inch amounts estimated via MRMS. The downstream environment continues to be moderately unstable and supportive of potential flash flooding as continued 1-2 inch/hr rain rates should move into areas that have already received 1-2 inches of rainfall (north and west of Amarillo) earlier today. FFGs are also fairly low (1-2 inch/hr thresholds) compared to normal. Flash flooding remains possible in these areas (the Panhandles) through at least 03Z. Also of concern over the next 3-6 hours is that low-level flow across southeastern New Mexico will likely ramp up to about 45 knots per RAP forecasts, suggesting that rapid recovery of the low-level airmass will likely occur in the wake of storms across central and eastern New Mexico. This recovery will occur beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates and likely lead to another round of strong convection across areas that have already experienced heavy rain in eastern New Mexico this afternoon. This recovery process appears to be well underway with newer development near Roswell and areas of towering cumulus extending from near Albuquerque southeastward to the TransPecos. Repeating storms could produce another 1-3 inches of rainfall tonight and prompt excessive runoff while also reaching the Panhandles later tonight. Flash flooding remains likely in this scenario. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6E7L5kkezGLB4Y9mIW4jGNueYDL9_nR8lqUR-I0CdnIZ3mTIoFq01DBxqLzLZcO8zn8o= 2jHFW1hRLjUDLiK6byU0OL0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...EPZ...LUB...MAF... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37000050 36360003 35060025 33120159 32180327=20 32350457 33500577 35000631 35930528 36360323=20 36700197=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .