Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 31 2023 22:02:40

AWUS01 KWNH 312202
FFGMPD
KSZ000-COZ000-010201-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0398
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
602 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023

Areas affected...far western Kansas, far eastern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312201Z - 010201Z

Summary...Flash flood potential could increase on a localized
basis as a cluster of strong convective cells drifts northward
toward the I-70 corridor in Colorado and Kansas.

Discussion...Recent radar imagery indicates a small convective
cluster located over Kiowa County, Colorado and vicinity.  These
storms were slow-moving (north at around 5-15 mph) mainly in
response to very weak southerly steering flow aloft.  The storms
had recenty congealed into more a forward-propagating linear
segment over the past hour or so, but were being sustained by very
unstable pre-convective air (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep mid-level
lapse rates (exceeding 8C/km).  Because of their slow movement,
estimated hourly rain rates (per MRMS) were peaking at around 2-3
inches/hr, which was likely challenging FFG thresholds of around
1-2 inches/hr across the region - locally lower.

The primary concern with this activity is that should it hold
together, it will likely impact areas closer to I-70 (just south
of Goodland) that experienced 3-7 inches of rainfall from storms
that occurred yesterday afternoon.  It is likely that ground
conditions near these areas are very moist, with the combination
of 1) efficient runoff potential and 2) an additional 1-2.5 inches
of rainfall contributing to a locally enhanced flash flood risk
over the next 2-3 hours.  This risk should be highest along and
just south of I-70 from Kit Carson and Cheyenne Counties eastward.
 The eastern extent of this threat is a bit uncertain - weaker
mid-level lapse rates exist across west-central Kansas and the
potential for the environment to support additional heavy rainfall
in areas from Logan to Ellis Counties is a bit unclear.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-MSC-ew4TgFK3LpFL-voN4YyDBHyaYgoC6henwk83_utZ0_oONGPbqiqmB7zlW0t7p8T=
ikuS66QQ6YXSUdNASL8ogW4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39770156 39730003 39439958 38839961 38150056=20
            37870161 38040227 38730376 39270371 39700291=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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