Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 31 2023 21:12:08

AWUS01 KWNH 312112
FFGMPD
FLZ000-010209-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0397
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
511 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023

Areas affected...south Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312109Z - 010209Z

Summary...Widespread convective activity continues across the
southern half of Florida currently.  Some of the heavier downpours
will possibly materialize over urban areas of the I-95 corridor
soon.  Flash flooding is possible with this activity.

Discussion...A broken band of slow-moving convection continues
generally from just south of Tampa southeastward through the
Everglades and into western portions of the Miami Metro area.  The
storms are in a very moist, buoyant environment characterized by
2+ inch PW values and nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, supporting very
efficient rainfall processes.  Slow/erratic storm movement was
also contributing to high rainfall rates that were eclipsing 2
inches/hr at times.   Most of these downpours were falling over
areas of >3 inch/hr FFG thresholds, continuing to suggest that any
ongoing flash flood threat should remain fairly isolated/limited
to urbanized areas in the short term.

Of somewhat greater concern is the tendency for storms to
gradually, yet erratically propagate closer to more populated
areas in southeast Florida.  These areas are a bit more
hydrologically sensitive, and recent radar imagery suggests the
presence of a couple of outflows that could collide over the metro
Miami area over the next 1-2 hours.  With the moist/unstable
airmass in place, slow storm movement could allow for a quick 1-3
inches of rain to fall atop urbanized/hydrophobic surfaces.=20
Depending on where the heaviest rain falls, isolated flash
flooding should become increasingly possible in this scenario.

Models/CAMs suggest that the ongoing thunderstorm threat should
continue through the next 3-5 hours.  This threat will likely be
tied to the degree of overturning and low-level stabilization in
the wake of ongoing convective clusters, with the bulk of
convective activity gradually shifting offshore after 03Z or so.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6JbM4qPkaFsVkqUGhNx8vSspYvJ7j9v8RA7n7_kF_mfAfJWFFGnwZO_7fSPweN2RA3jp=
oT_FbsvFpn8ErQlunACsyX8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   28098239 28078161 27938058 27187995 26187995=20
            25338017 24958069 25088125 25638190 26638254=20
            27058273 27818280=20

=3D =3D =3D
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