Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0910
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 31 2023 20:39:32

ACUS11 KWNS 312039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312039=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-312315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0910
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023

Areas affected...Parts of eastern WY...southwestern SD...northern
CO...and the NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 312039Z - 312315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of large hail and perhaps locally severe
winds are possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating coupled with moist easterly upslope
flow (middle/upper 50s dewpoints) is supporting isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development along/east of the higher terrain
in western SD/eastern WY southward into northern CO. VWP data shows
a belt of 20-25-kt midlevel flow atop the low-level easterlies --
yielding around 25-35 kt of effective shear. As storms continue to
evolve and eventually spread eastward into the richer low-level
moisture, a couple instances of large hail and locally severe gusts
will be possible with the more-organized updrafts.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 05/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7_O7B7zzHeu_0ReQSJEeAIbRd61C6fbGsjQBlvUGvRjgy6Iw_NthJOw_LYp-nhJxBEed2gh6t=
rxcHlGbO4kS6yrmX64$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   43060460 43760444 44150416 44350368 44380296 44260259
            43900226 42160266 41360291 40810310 40320342 39950373
            39610409 39580445 39660491 39850514 40400515 40920506
            41570486 41980475 42460467 43060460=20


=3D =3D =3D
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