Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 31 2023 20:18:37

AWUS01 KWNH 312018
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-010016-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0395
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Wed May 31 2023

Areas affected...western Iowa, far eastern Nebraska, and
southwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312016Z - 010016Z

Summary...Spotty, isolated flash flood potential exists through at
least 23Z with an ongoing band of storms across the discussion
area.

Discussion...Deepening convection continues along an axis
extending from near VVV (Ortonville, MN) south-southwestward to
west of Omaha, NE.  The convection was focused along a weak
surface trough in that general vicinity and was benefiting from
strong buoyancy (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and high moisture content (1.5
inch PW values) along and east of that trough.  Additionally, the
trough is oriented parallel to weak flow aloft, promoting not only
slow storm motions but also for localized training of convective
cores at times.  These factors were fostering areas of 1.2 inch/hr
rain rates, which was approaching 1.5-2 inch/hr FFG thresholds
across the region (especially in IA and MN).=20

Models/CAMs are not particularly aggressive with development of
this convective band through the afternoon.  Current thinking is
that the ongoing convection should remain focused along its
current axis with movement/propagation driven mainly by local
convective processes.  Later in the afternoon, larger-scale
overturning of convection could result in enough low-level
stabilization to lessen the risk of storms (and potential flash
flooding), but this process should probably begin after 23Z at the
earliest.  A localized flash flood threat should exist between now
and then, however.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6dNZFPcalz90ktaH3sZe4IPiuKYSDME0lfB0gCOp-RH-IUEbbz0Y80g-xwgl4Eu50Oui=
viRTVQ-GlOlRAA2-_ahBdzQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...DMX...FSD...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   45879535 45469458 43559483 41619554 41299686=20
            42789677 44589650 45449644=20

=3D =3D =3D
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