Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0908 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 31 2023 19:32:01 ACUS11 KWNS 311931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311931=20 TXZ000-NMZ000-312130- Mesoscale Discussion 0908 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Areas affected...Eastern NM...Western TX Panhandle into Far West TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20 Valid 311931Z - 312130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon, with strong to severe storms possible. Main severe threat is strong gust and large hail, but a tornado or two is possible with any more discrete storms. DISCUSSION...Air mass across eastern NM and adjacent portions of the western TX Panhandle and Far West TX continue to destabilize in the wake of earlier cloud cover. Temperatures across southeastern NM and vicinity are in the upper 80s/low 90s with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. Temperatures are cooler across more of east-central NM, where some cloud cover still remains and diurnal heating has been limited. An axis of moderate buoyancy stretches from the Midland vicinity northwestward across east-central CO, where the most favorable low-level moisture is in place amid a recovering outflow boundary. Cumulus has been deepening across this region as well as over the higher terrain. Additional destabilization is likely into more of the CVS vicinity as the cloud cover continues to thin. Expectation is for thunderstorm initiation within the next two hours across both the higher terrain of central and south-central NM as well as east of the terrain over more of east-central NM. High cloud bases and an outflow-dominant storm mode is likely early, with lowering cloud bases and potentially more linear organization as the storms approach the TX/NM border. A more discrete mode is possible with any development ahead of these linear segments, particularly if in-situ development occurs near the TX/NM border.=20 Large hail is possible with initial development, as well as any more discrete storms. A transition to more of a wind threat is likely as cold pools congeal and move eastward. Stronger southeasterly surface winds over the southwestern TX Panhandle/TX South Plains region suggests a relatively better tornado environment, but expectation is for a predominantly linear mode as storms reach this area. ...Mosier/Guyer.. 05/31/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9-PB3qrGuMK8cbfhhBsDZ-Wugawrhs-YqyZ2Hn6S3Q3deCl4Vv2IDlDjofdG86OK9q35U3P6_= ZuBNgPrfPHFPnD-Lzs$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 34350603 35550581 35780528 35470441 35050300 34450242 33890230 33090235 32290242 31490273 31030312 30940370 31140434 32120459 33420552 34350603=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .