Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 31 2023 10:07:29

AWUS01 KWNH 311007
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-311430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0393
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
606 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023

Areas affected...eastern KS/western MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 311004Z - 311430Z

Summary...Locally heavy rain is expected to continue a flash flood
threat across portions of eastern KS and western MO for at least
another 2-3 hours. Peak rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr will be
possible along with localized totals of 3-5 inches through 14Z or
15Z.

Discussion...0945Z regional radar imagery showed an expanding
cluster of thunderstorms over eastern KS with observed rainfall
rates over 1 inch in 30 minutes across portions of Douglas and
Franklin counties. The storms were elevated, located north of a
remnant and quasi-stationary outflow boundary that extended from
west-central MO into southeastern KS. Another outflow boundary was
identified over east-central KS, moving east at ~20-25 kt. SSWLY
925-850 mb flow was observed to be 20-30 kt via area VAD wind
plots ahead of the eastward moving outflow boundary, supporting
the resupply of low level moisture into eastern KS with 500 to
1000+ J/kg MUCAPE estimated by the 09Z SPC mesoanalysis over
eastern KS.

Slow steering flow will continue to promote slow cell movement
with 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates and the potential for 2-3 in/hr on a
localized basis as convection continues to expand. There are some
indications of outflow pushing away from the Lawrence, KS
vicinity, along with stronger cores pushing away to the south and
west. It is uncertain how the eastward approaching outflow from
east-central KS will influence the ongoing convection in eastern
KS (possible weakening), but there appears to be a window of at
least another 2-3 hours for likely flash flooding in portions of
eastern KS along with localized storm totals of 3-5 inches.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8ata8OVBtHAAZsEiuJLttaRsnPqsbgVob4PekaYsZ84DbYWaJ4_0kGOHeblQf1FfSFDs=
V1ZyYdoh6UxkYid9Gdo4liU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39949485 39489456 38859422 37989412 37449420=20
            37159457 37079532 37219612 37579652 38669645=20
            39599609 39889567=20

=3D =3D =3D
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