Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 31 2023 09:24:29

AWUS01 KWNH 310924
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-311400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0392
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
523 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023

Areas affected...northern TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310920Z - 311400Z

SUMMARY...Brief training of high rates will pose a short term
flash flood threat for the northern TX Panhandle through 14Z. A
quick 1-3 inches in 1-2 hours will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Convection has increased over the TX Panhandle
through 09Z beneath strongly diffluent flow aloft in the wake of
earlier convection that was currently moving into OK and
weakening. The associated outflow boundary from the weakening
convection was analyzed from southwestern OK into TX...just south
of CDS...and westward..just north of PVW at 09Z. The northward
advection of low level moisture via 850-700 mb winds of 20-30 kt,
sampled by the KLBB VAD wind profile, has allowed the erosion of
CIN and redevelopment of thunderstorms due to overrunning of the
rain-cooled air. Estimated MLCAPE along and just south of the
outflow boundary was 500-1000 J/kg and PWATs of 1.0-1.2 inches
were present just north of the boundary via the 09Z SPC
mesoanalysis. Individual cell motions were somewhat chaotic, but a
general motion toward the east is expected, following the
deeper-layer mean flow. Mergers and short term training could
support rainfall rates of 1-2 inches in 30-60 minutes and 2-3
inches in 1-2 hours on a localized basis, which may generate flash
flooding given wet antecedent conditions from the past week of
rainfall across the region. Convection is expected to weaken in
the 12-14Z time frame with the aid of increasing subsidence in the
wake of a shortwave trough forecast to pass through western OK,
along with rising mid-level heights in its wake.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4TP4SuFZfn2IXyO0NEcroXAvupw5DeAvvfzvJAnQ1UA3Vr4MZR1o6QIAISnrgAl3RR5Y=
z4aLPkPSq5-Srb3dfxrYiWQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36070141 35820018 34709980 34200036 34030136=20
            34410255 34910290 35540283 35910225=20

=3D =3D =3D
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