Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 31 2023 08:46:26

ACUS48 KWNS 310846
SWOD48
SPC AC 310844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Some severe potential may develop across parts of central/southern
TX through Days 4-5/Sat-Sun as a weak mid/upper shortwave trough
meanders across the southern Plains and a weakening subtropical jet
shifts south of the Rio Grande Valley. Seasonal moisture will remain
in place, and areas of strong thunderstorm development are likely
across parts of western through southern TX. However, confidence in
15 percent or greater coverage is low at this time.

Otherwise, predictability becomes low during the Day 6-8/Mon-Wed
time period. Forecast guidance evolves an eastern upper trough very
differently. But in general, mean troughing in the east and west
seems likely, though amplitude and longitude of the trough axis is
unclear. Between the western and eastern mean troughs, a
low-amplitude, rather nondescript flow regime will encompass the
middle third of the CONUS.

...Leitman.. 05/31/2023

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