Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 31 2023 07:30:57 ACUS03 KWNS 310730 SWODY3 SPC AC 310730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains. ....Central/Southern Plains vicinity... A mid/upper shortwave trough over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies will shift east into the southern Plains on Friday. Stronger west/southwesterly mid/upper flow compared to recent events is expected across parts of southeast NM into west TX, with 40-50 kt at 500 mb. Southeasterly low-level flow will contribute to favorable vertically veering profiles, resulting in effective-shear values around 40+ kt. This will favor organized convection with at least isolated supercells possible. Vertical shear will weaken with northward extent toward the OK/TX Panhandles and eastern CO/western KS. Surface dewpoints in mid 60s F (low 60s further north) beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will foster strong destabilization, and a corridor of MLCAPE values to around 2000-3000 J/kg is expected. Confidence in severe potential with northward extent into the central High Plains is lower, given several rounds of convection across parts of southeast CO/western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles leading into Friday. Furthermore, weaker shear with northward extent suggests severe potential will be lower compared to further south. Currently, the best overlap of moderate vertical shear and stronger instability, along with an assist via large-scale ascent offered by the ejecting shortwave trough, appears to be focused from southeast NM into the southwest TX vicinity. All severe hazards will be possible across this corridor, with initial supercells possibly growing upscale into forward-propagating clusters or a bowing MCS during the evening as a low-level jet increases. ...Leitman.. 05/31/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .