Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 31 2023 05:52:27 ACUS02 KWNS 310552 SWODY2 SPC AC 310550 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms producing hail and strong gusts are possible across portions of the southern High Plains on Thursday afternoon and evening. ....Southern High Plains vicinity... Convection may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across portions of the OK/TX Panhandles associated with remnants of convection in the Day 1/Wed period. Early convection, along with any outflow from Day 1/Wed activity, may inhibit stronger airmass recovery. Boundary-layer moisture is forecast to be somewhat less compared to previous days, though southeasterly low-level flow should maintain mid/upper 50s F surface dewpoints. Steep midlevel lapse rates will aid in modest destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) despite muted surface heating. A convectively enhanced vorticity maximum will lift northeast into KS through the early afternoon, while modest large-scale ascent associated with a weakening mid/upper shortwave trough over the Four Corners vicinity pivots northeast toward the central/southern Rockies. Vertical shear will remain modest, but vertically veering profiles will contribute to around 25 kt effective-shear magnitudes. Shear magnitudes may also be locally augmented by any MCV that may reside over the region, again tied to convection in the Day 1/Wed period. Most guidance suggests convection will redevelop by mid-afternoon across western portions of the TX Panhandle/South Plains vicinity. Given a weaker thermodynamic environment compared to previous days, and expected modest vertical shear, severe potential appears to be more conditional compared to other recent days. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe storms capable of strong gusts and hail seem possible. While boundary-layer moisture will remain somewhat weak, low-level shear may be sufficient for a tornado or two in the vicinity of outflow or remnant MCV from the Day 1/Wed period, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) will be maintained for the initial Day 2/Thu outlook. If confidence increases in a corridor of greater severe potential, an upgrade to Slight risk (level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks. ...Leitman.. 05/31/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .