Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 31 2023 05:43:57 ACUS01 KWNS 310543 SWODY1 SPC AC 310542 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ....SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe gusts are possible this evening are portions of the southern High Plains. ....Synopsis... A mid-level low over the Mojave Desert will move east to the Four Corners during period. A blocking pattern will continue over parts of the East while a weakening ridge shifts eastward across the southern Great Plains. ....Southern High Plains... A few showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing early this morning over OK before dissipating by mid morning. A remnant outflow boundary will likely extend westward from OK into the TX Panhandle and perhaps into northeast NM. South of the boundary, a seasonably moisture-rich airmass, featuring 50s to lower 60s deg F dewpoints, will become moderately to strongly unstable by mid afternoon (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast to gradually strengthen during the day across the southern High Plains (30-40 kt at 500 mb) and elongate hodographs across the Permian Basin northward through the Eastern Plains of NM. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late afternoon and continue through the evening. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary severe risks, but a tornado is possible where moisture is locally higher with an established supercell. Upscale growth into one or more small clusters is expected to move into the TX South Plains and TX Panhandle during the evening before this activity weakens by late evening. ....Central High Plains to the Black Hills... Considerably weaker mid to upper flow is forecast farther north over the central High Plains. Strong heating will contribute to moderate instability developing by the early to mid afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered storms are forecast over eastern CO (local minimum in storm coverage) perhaps compared to farther north over the NE Panhandle and Black Hills vicinity. Regardless, steep lapse rates will favor strong to severe downdrafts with the more intense cores. An isolated risk for large hail will probably accompany the stronger updrafts during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Smith/Wendt.. 05/31/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .