Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed May 31 2023 05:28:55 AWUS01 KWNH 310528 FFGMPD MOZ000-KSZ000-311010- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0391 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 127 AM EDT Wed May 31 2023 Areas affected...eastern KS into western MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 310526Z - 311010Z Summary...Areas of slow moving thunderstorms are likely across portions of eastern KS and far western MO over the next 3-5 hours. Peak rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr will be possible which may result in localized to scattered areas of flash flooding. Discussion...Regional radar imagery over the past 1-2 hours has shown an uptick in the coverage of convection over eastern KS, located just west of an MCV (western Miami County) and north of an outflow boundary related to convection from late Tuesday evening. The outflow boundary extended WNW from southeastern KS but another outflow boundary was observed to be moving eastward, related to convection ongoing in western KS. Localized stabilization of the airmass near the eastern KS MCV is suspected given overturning of the atmosphere from earlier convection, however, destabilization is occurring due to the northward advection of higher 925-850 mb moisture as seen on Layered PW imagery. 05Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE in place south and west of the localized minimum near the MCV center in eastern KS. Southerly 925 mb winds averaged 20 kt from KINX, KICT and KTWX and 850 mb winds ranged from 15-30 kt across these same locations. Meanwhile, 850-300 mb mean layer winds were 5-15 kt across eastern KS into MO, supportive of slow storm motions. Short term forecasts from the RAP showed a subtle increase in 925-850 mb wind speeds along with veering through 10Z over east-central KS, possibly related to advancing outflow from the west, which should act to increase overrunning of the remnant outflow boundary over central to southeastern KS. The low to mid-level circulation/MCV over eastern KS is forecast to translate toward the ENE over the next few hours and with increasing instability occurring from southwest to northeast, and low level convergence is expected to increase thunderstorm coverage over eastern KS into western MO over the next few hours. While 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates may be more common, a number of these storms are expected to be slow moving which could generate 2-3 in/hr rainfall totals and subsequent areas of flash flooding. While coverage of higher rainfall rates is a but uncertain at this time, current thinking is at least localized to possibly scattered areas of flash flooding could occur over the next 3-5 hours from portions of eastern KS into western MO. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8vB5pbdcYp94gYzNjFWd27u02C3vNSU8Yh69t6O7zCWEZULsEntkmIwnevyBbKHLiaAm= wRHheSYo1ynM3ZrBsWwWfqs$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39559577 39489506 39209448 39049424 38569401=20 37859404 37419426 37159505 37449642 37959720=20 38589734 39279686=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .