Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 31 2023 01:03:25

ACUS01 KWNS 310103
SWODY1
SPC AC 310102

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Valid 310100Z - 311200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA...FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm gusts -- some reaching at least 75 mph -- are
possible this evening over portions of the central and southern High
Plains.

....Black Hills southward into west Texas...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this evening from
far eastern NM northward into western SD.  Steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates were sampled by the 00 UTC Amarillo, TX and North Platte, NE
raobs (9.1 deg C/km and 8.0 deg C/km, respectively) and both raobs
sampled around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE.  In between over parts of western
and northwest KS, considerable convective overturning has occurred
late this afternoon into the early evening.  Have spatially adjusted
the 30-percent wind and significant wind probabilities to account
for this reservoir of more stable air.  Through the evening, squall
lines over NE and the TX-OK Panhandles are forecast to mature as
they move into a more moisture-rich/unstable environment.  Severe
gusts (possibly significant) and large hail are the hazards before
this activity gradually diminishes tonight.

Please reference MCD #903 for short-term details over parts of the
OK-TX Panhandles.

...Smith.. 05/31/2023

$$

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