Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0903
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed May 31 2023 00:45:55

ACUS11 KWNS 310045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310045=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-310215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0903
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Areas affected...Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250...

Valid 310045Z - 310215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in intensity within the
western OK/TX Panhandles. Strong/severe wind gusts are the main
threat with isolated large hail also possible.

DISCUSSION...Updraft development has started to increase in far
northeastern New Mexico over the last hour. Most of these storms
have only shown modest strength. With area VAD profile showing an
increase in low-level southeasterly winds, the expectation is for
storm coverage and, eventually, intensity to increase as they move
into the TX/OK Panhandles. A radar fine line feature on KAMA imagery
has been present along the Caprock for several hours. This feature
has shown some westward progress recently in combination with the
low-level winds. This appears to be a subtle moisture boundary. The
00Z AMA sounding showed very steep mid-level lapse rates (around 9
C/km) with little MLCIN. Efficient outflow production is expected
which will promote strong to severe wind gusts. Large hail remains a
possibility, but this is expected to occur with initial updraft
pulses and be more isolated than wind damage.

...Wendt.. 05/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9VtI34kBlIQ2OIbC7vuShf3N2aowYM0Wkzfo3TnaqA3RQIRN6fQpUJ7k4nxIzLHKFIiu-MlEN=
SxYWHoehdj1BzbB2nE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35320317 36580299 37030252 37280167 37050100 36760083
            35780122 35090194 34850245 34900281 34970303 35100322
            35320317=20


=3D =3D =3D
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