Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 30 2023 22:59:19

AWUS01 KWNH 302259
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-310458-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0389
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
659 PM EDT Tue May 30 2023

Areas affected...western Kansas, eastern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 302258Z - 310458Z

Summary...Slow-moving storms should continue to expand in coverage
and intensity through the early overnight hours.  Flash flood
potential should continue through at least 04Z.

Discussion...An axis of deep convection has materialized across
roughly the I-70 corridor in western Kansas.  The cluster has been
dominated by a couple of nearly stationary storms (near HLC and
just southwest of GLD) that have produced 2-3 inch/hr rain rates.=20
Additional convection was developing in between the two storms.=20
The environment supporting this activity is characterized by very
strong instability (nearly 3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and weak flow aloft
(only 20 knots at 500mb), supporting the robust updrafts and slow
movement currently observed.=20

While the flash flood threat should continue for the next few
hours with ongoing activity, additional storms are expected to
develop in far eastern Colorado and grow upscale while merging
with ongoing convective clusters.  This potential is hinted at by
several CAMs, although the general underforecast of current
activity lends some uncertainty with respect to specific timing of
this anticipated evolution.  As storms continue to merge/congeal
and grow upscale, flash flood potential should continue through
04Z especially along the I-70 corridor.  Localized 3-5 inch totals
are expected with this activity.  Hourly rates are already
exceeding FFG thresholds (currently between 1-2 inches/hr) and
prompting moderate MRMS Flash responses.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-bwZmc8EegOzcVTK4GMpS7z1BXlzQ1kzp1FUWSEZ85QjhhRM6kPoS-AHmcHLGKbTY7uF=
fYd29Iid3xuYolfWUGeLS5g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40180125 39929931 39279846 38539835 37590012=20
            37100210 37260428 38550419 39350375 40070251=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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