Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0898
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 30 2023 19:13:22

ACUS11 KWNS 301913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301912=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-302115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0898
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Areas affected...Northeastern KS...southeastern NE...northwestern
MO...and southwestern IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 301912Z - 302115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable
of marginal hail and locally strong gusts should increase during the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a remnant MCV over northeastern KS, locally
enhanced mesoscale ascent/surface confluence combined with diurnal
destabilization of a moist air mass (middle 60s dewpoints) is
supporting deepening cumulus and isolated thunderstorm development
this afternoon. This activity is developing along the far eastern
edge of steep midlevel lapse rates associated with an EML over the
central Plains and in a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture.
While low/midlevel flow is relatively weak over the area, a couple
stronger/briefly organized updrafts capable of marginally severe
hail and locally strong gusts are possible -- aided by the steep
deep-layer lapse rates and somewhat focused zone of mesoscale
ascent. Any severe threat should remain isolated.

...Weinman/Hart.. 05/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8QpRjjsIL9rXp9vqaY55oaXLVgqIpJhil493Jw5Lji__1qJkRucQqqvGsaD0GOgUjJDAfF8wr=
1TRwnA2P5qIxGlJTa4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39449668 39229641 39209578 39279548 39449526 39669506
            39969499 40319492 40859484 41289474 41609470 41969476
            42149500 42189544 42029586 41899610 41739616 41319643
            40839654 40119653 39449668=20


=3D =3D =3D
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