Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0897
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 30 2023 19:11:22

ACUS11 KWNS 301911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301910=20
COZ000-NMZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-302115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0897
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Areas affected...Southeast WY...Eastern CO...Northeast NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 301910Z - 302115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts are possible across the
central and southern High Plains this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown cumulus building
across the higher terrain of central CO, north-central NM, and
south-central WY from late morning until now. Lightning has recently
been observed in a few areas, indicating these cumulus have now
reached enough depth for lightning production. This overall trend of
gradually deepening cumulus is expected to continue, resulting in
progressively increasing thunderstorm coverage. Westerly mean flow
will take these currently developing storms into the lower
elevations of the southern and central High Plains.=20

The air mass over these lower elevations is already deeply mixed,
with this mixing expected to persist through the afternoon. Despite
this deep mixing, gradually increasing mid-level moisture will help
support modest buoyancy. As a result, storms will likely persist as
they move into this environment, with the high cloud bases and deep
mixing contributing to strong outflows and the potential for some
severe wind gusts. Overall severe coverage is expected to be
isolated, with the severe potential increasing farther east later
this evening as this storms and associated outflow interact with the
more buoyant air mass over that region. A watch will eventually be
needed as this activity moves east, but timing is uncertain.

...Mosier/Hart.. 05/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-2QPF64kXY9Gfp7-mQZWae6Itg7xHL-ZILI5FczdCQqDfCaf7p04XKPSykWJqHFo0cdCfuhYZ=
ckW5OoIKcidz9ffzT0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

LAT...LON   40830519 42020575 42840556 42720445 41170390 38470307
            35630338 35660452 37670485 38270485 38860487 39760519
            40830519=20


=3D =3D =3D
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