Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 30 2023 16:18:57

ACUS01 KWNS 301618
SWODY1
SPC AC 301617

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Valid 301630Z - 311200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WESTERN
KANSAS...EASTERN COLORADO...AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES....

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm gusts -- some reaching at least 75 mph -- are
possible from this afternoon into early evening over portions of the
central High Plains.

....Central High Plains...
Morning model guidance shows a weak mid-level shortwave trough
lifting northeastward through the four-corners region.  Broad but
weak large scale ascent ahead of this trough is resulting in a large
patch of mid/high clouds moving across the central Rockies.  This
area of moisture will overspread the high plains of eastern
CO/northeast NM by mid-afternoon.  Full sunshine will lead to a very
deep mixed layer with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, along with
marginal CAPE.  This should support scattered high-based showers and
thunderstorms capable of dry microburst activity.

As this convection and associated outflow boundaries spread eastward
during the late afternoon and early evening, they will interact with
a moist and very unstable air mass (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg) from
western NE into far eastern CO, western KS, and the TX/OK
Panhandles.  Rapid intensification of storms will lead to more
widespread and intense wind gusts during the evening, along with a
few cells capable of large hail.  Severe storms will persist for a
few hours after dark, before diurnal cooling/decoupling weakens the
threat.  Given the high degree of agreement between 12z CAM
solutions, will introduce a narrow ENH where greatest concern for
damaging winds is apparent.

...Hart/Weinman.. 05/30/2023

$$

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