Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 30 2023 07:52:49

ACUS48 KWNS 300752
SWOD48
SPC AC 300751

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Some severe potential will persist across parts of western into
central Texas on Day 4/Fri as a midlevel shortwave trough migrates
across the southern Plains. Enhanced mid/upper flow associated with
the subtropical jet stretching across northern Mexico into Texas
will provide support for organized convection. However, several
rounds of convection before Day 4/Fri, impacts on airmass recovery
and location of surface boundaries, and any remnant MCVs lends some
uncertainty in extent of severe coverage/intensity. This will
preclude 15-percent delineation at this time, but probabilities may
become necessary in subsequent outlooks.

Confidence in severe potential dwindles into the weekend as stronger
flow aloft shifts southward across central/southern Texas.
Thereafter, a weak-flow/low-amplitude pattern develops across much
of the CONUS, further limiting predictability.

...Leitman.. 05/30/2023

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