Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 30 2023 07:12:20

ACUS03 KWNS 300712
SWODY3
SPC AC 300711

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms producing hail and strong
gusts are possible across portions of the southern High Plains on
Thursday afternoon and evening.

....Southern High Plains vicinity...

A series of vorticity maxima will migrate across the southern High
Plains amid 40-50 kt southwesterly flow in the midlevels. An upper
closed low and attendant shortwave trough over the Four Corners
vicinity will weaken through the period before another shortwave
trough develops east across northwest Mexico after 00z. Large-scale
ascent may be somewhat muted compared to Days 1-2/Tue-Wed as the
region sits between the influence of the departing and weakening
system from the Day 2 period, and the shortwave trough over
northwest Mexico. However, 4-6 km flow will be stronger, resulting
in more favorable vertical shear, with effective shear magnitudes
greater than 40 kt forecast.

Mid 50s to low 60s F boundary-layer dewpoints beneath steep midlevel
lapse rates will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Generally, this
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space would support severe
storms. However, concerns over potential morning convection/cloud
cover, and weak forcing for ascent limiting storm coverage, preclude
higher severe probabilities at this time. While the extent of severe
potential is somewhat conditional, it seems reasonable that at least
a few strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging
gusts will be possible, warranting a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5).

...Leitman.. 05/30/2023

$$

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