Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 30 2023 06:00:49

ACUS02 KWNS 300600
SWODY2
SPC AC 300559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES VICINITY...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and strong
gusts are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across the
central and southern High Plains vicinity.

....Central/Southern High Plains...

An initial midlevel ridge will be centered over the southern/central
High Plains early Wednesday. This feature is forecast to shift east
through the day, as an upper low over southern CA migrates east over
the Southwest. As this occurs, increasing mid/upper flow associated
with a west/southwesterly sub-tropical jet is forecast spread into
the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains vicinity.

Southeasterly low-level winds will maintain mid 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (8-8.5 C/km). This will
allow for moderate to strong destabilization by late afternoon.
Effective-shear values will remain somewhat modest, around 25 kt.
This should be sufficient for organized convection with vertically
veering wind profiles marginally supporting transient supercell
structure. Increasing flow above about 4 km will elongate
hodographs, indicating large hail potential in any longer-lived and
better organized storms given the lapse rates/thermodynamic
environment. Otherwise, steep low-level lapse rates and a well-mixed
boundary layer, amid strong instability, will favor strong to severe
outflow gusts. A southerly low-level jet is forecast to mildly
increase during the evening and some upscale growth aided by this
feature, and consolidating outflow, is possible as convection shifts
east from eastern CO/NM into western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles.

...Leitman.. 05/30/2023

$$

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