Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 30 2023 03:48:32

AWUS01 KWNH 300348
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-300735-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0384
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1148 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023

Areas affected...southwestern NE into northwestern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300346Z - 300735Z

SUMMARY...Periods of training with rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
will be possible near the western NE/KS border the next few hours.
While coverage remains a bit uncertain, if these rates are able to
materialize through sufficient convective development, flash
flooding could result.

DISCUSSION...03Z surface observations placed an outflow boundary
from just south and east of a SYF-MCK-LXN line, out ahead of a
largely progressive line of thunderstorms. Upstream convection was
noted however, over northeastern CO, pushing into southwestern NE
as a result of remnant thunderstorm activity that moved off of the
Rockies and outflow boundary overrunning from 25-35 kt 850 mb flow
in place over western KS which shifted to easterly/upslope in the
wake of the outflow boundary. SPC mesoanalysis data from 03Z
showed ~500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE in place along with PWATs near 1 inch
along the western KS/NE border.

With mean steering flow from the west to west-northwest, if storms
are able to intensify upstream from northeastern CO into
southwestern NE, a setup for training could develop with
overrunning flow helping to sustain convection with movement from
WNW to ESE. While the outflow boundary continues to be progressive
to the south, some slowing is possible over western KS and 1-2
in/hr rainfall rates are expected if convection is able to ramp up
in coverage to the north of the outflow which would fall over a
region with low FFG values that were only 1.5 to 2.5 inches in 3
hours. Flash flooding will be possible, but coverage is a bit
uncertain at this time given poor model performance across this
part of the country.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8wz3fYiuyfQNay5XXWRA7df5oP2q6875EM-heogVzHLqyiFyFSvMkSx3T6HtRZDJ0xUE=
gvuFwv9tiHgH3xqzaCBtG0c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...GID...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40680143 40429976 39919891 39449908 39379996=20
            39410079 39660188 40090219 40550203=20

=3D =3D =3D
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