Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue May 30 2023 01:34:31

AWUS01 KWNH 300134
FFGMPD
TXZ000-300630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0383
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
933 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023

Areas affected...South Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300130Z - 300630Z

SUMMARY...Lingering thunderstorms with capability of intense
sub-hourly rain-rates and quick 2", may track across similar
locations resulting in localized 2-3" totals and possible flash
flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...A mature thunderstorm complex continues to develop
along the forward flank/outflow boundary across south-central TX
generally heading southward along theta-E gradient into Deep South
Texas.  A few individual thunderstorms have also developed along
this gradient along/ahead of the mature complex.   RAP analysis
suggests air remains fairly buoyant even though outflow boundaries
have been kicked westward from underneath the pre-cursory
development, with 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE still available. While
CINH has been building in the wake of initial cells, weak inflow
from surface to boundary layer and forward progression of the
complex should be sufficient for moisture convergence to maintain
thunderstorms into the overnight period.  Moisture is fairly deep
with total PWats of 1.75"+ to keep rainfall efficiency & rates
high for sub-hourly totals up to 2" and spots of 2-3" totals,
given expected forward translation speeds.

The best risk for possible flash flooding will be in locations
where pre-cursory development wets the grounds and increases
stream flow, this may result in spots of up to 4" before the event
is over.   Higher risk for flash flooding will be west of 98.5W
where FFG values are about .5-1"/hr or 3hrs lower than near the
coast.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-VnWe6YEdkNg24vagtWhdmdDrPSnAAXKLXcS-0_rW9KdQd9OUiGzeu9FactyXEauTnuD=
SfYjVuqpZWC0U899Rklg1gc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   29089783 28709750 27489737 26729729 25919711=20
            25809741 25959773 26019827 26229876 26399916=20
            26969946 27429957 28229975 28879957 28809858=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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