Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 29 2023 21:24:24

AWUS01 KWNH 292124
FFGMPD
TXZ000-300200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0380
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
523 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023

Areas affected...Central Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 292125Z - 300200Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving highly efficient rainfall 2"/hr rates across
Hill Country/prone areas may trigger multiple scattered incidents
of flash flooding through evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV denotes center of deep layer shortwave is
very slow to move, and is starting to repivot/centralize a tad
south.  Full insolation resulted in increased tempuratures into
the mid-80s with ample deep layer moisture (1.5" total PWat)  in
the vicinity.   Surface response to tightening of the upper-level
low provided the convergence needed to breakout thunderstorms in
the region.  Given the deep layer shortwave is centered near the
convective developement, cell motions have been very slow to
stationary though cold pool generation/outflow boundaries appear
to be forming near the center...outwards with favorability toward
the west and south, which may allow for additional upstream cells
to repeat at later times.=20=20=20

Southerly flow off the Gulf from this morning, should be arriving
over the next few hours with increase of southeastly winds, could
allow for increased southeast propagation, expanding the risk of
intense rainfall rates in the vicinity of the urban corridor along
I-35, as well.  Given rates of 2-2.5"/hr and local duration of 1-2
hours.  Spots of 2-4" are probable likely resulting in further
scatttered incidents of flash flooding through the evening hours.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!49xEHuADSEw8bDW6CG6kQatT2BSPcIF6fSRPHWYegpIClT5ok7KybGOGA0fDXkAh2arK=
Xq1MjcfnIDtACHO5dpCTx6A$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31619814 30959724 29719713 29079780 28819866=20
            29089961 29829996 30749990 31569928=20

=3D =3D =3D
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