Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 29 2023 20:57:24

AWUS01 KWNH 292057
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-300100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0379
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
456 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023

Areas affected...North Texas...Sout-Central Oklahoma...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292100Z - 300100Z

SUMMARY...Pulse thunderstorms starting to collide into larger
scale over-turning with deep layer moisture, weak flow... very
intense instantaneous rates with 2-3" totals possible over the
next few hours.  A few incidents of flash flooding are possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a mid-level trof across
western OK, trying to shift eastward; yet remnant MCVs from last
evening's complexes dot the Plains from SE KS to central OK and
across the Hill Country of TX.  The central OK MCV appears to be
pressing back with shortwave ridging and subtle enhancement of the
mid to upper jet streak over NW OK into central KS.  This has
allowed for a broad region of weak but confluent surface to low
level (850/800mb) across south-central OK and across the Red River
into North Texas. Deep moisture has pooled in the southeast
portion of the MCV circulation with two convergence bands noted in
Visible imagery across N Texas with values over 1.5-1.6" noted in
GPS and RAP analysis.=20

Numerous thunderstorms have developed and are slowly propagating
along weak outflow boundaries with rates of 2"/hr given the deep
moisture loading.  Individually, there is limited duration at a
given spot to exceed the higher FFGs in the region; however, there
is an increasing trend of propagation toward the center of
remaining instability/moisture pool across S OK into N Texas.  As
such, colliding outflow should see a broader updrafts/slab ascent
over the next few hours (possibly one or two), which should
increase moisture loading to 2-3"/hr or higher sub-hourly
downdrafts with instantaneous rates of even higher.  Spots of 2-3"
in less than an hour may allow for a few incidents of localized
flash flooding particularly if the downdrafts are broad enough to
affect bordering watersheds.  With rates of this type, even hard
grounds will be effectively hydrophobic and see increased run-off
potential for possible flash flooding.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5yXrKKFpGgi5f6M4bEd41IO3UHrjqu3di-t2ao82269TXmbdZ-UrnHcrBjIEXcH0GQf0=
rK_o_Au3BRnrH-daWeZHxW4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35619609 35109561 34339546 33399566 32779589=20
            32679652 32509712 32159774 32319868 33129868=20
            33699780 33999761 34379741 34869725 35399689=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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