Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 29 2023 13:37:20

AWUS01 KWNH 291337
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-291730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0376
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
936 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

Areas affected...western Virginia, southern West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 291334Z - 291730Z

Summary...Persistent showers and thunderstorms across the
discussion area should result in a continuing flash flood risk
through at least 1600Z/noon EDT today.

Discussion...Areas of moderate to heavy rainfall have persisted
for at least the past 6 hours along an axis from US 220 between
Roanoke and Greensboro, NC westward along the higher terrain of
western Virginia and southern West Virginia.  The rain rates have
not only resulted in a broad area of 1.5-3.5 inch rainfall totals
this morning, but are also falling in areas of degraded radar
coverage, leading to radar-based underestimates of these totals.=20
The axis is being maintained by appreciable low-level easterly
flow on the north side of a cyclone centered over the Carolinas.=20
The flow was maintaining buoyancy, convergence, and orographic
ascent across the discussion area, with 20-30 knots of easterly
850mb flow and ~500 J/kg MUCAPE noted per SPC Mesoanalyses.  This
environment will continue to support areas of flash flood
potential in the short term, with impacts reported around the
Bluefield, WV area this morning.

The ongoing regime for heavy rainfall will persist for at least a
couple more hours.  Thereafter, models suggest that the mid/upper
low supporting the flash flood scenario will move slowly
northeastward away from the discussion area. Meanwhile, low-level
flow will gradually decrease.  Per models/CAMs, rainfall rates are
predicted to subside briefly around mid-day but may not completely
diminish.  Over time, areas of insolation may lead to another
diurnally driven uptick in convection later in the afternoon.  As
convective trends evolve, another MPD may be needed for a
continuing flash flood risk after 1730Z or so.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-xKTecF7_DKK-qZUUyUlJjHtgI-sIRtez6ERt_Q3pjGCmtTAYgnka_1Bz5eJgNZEpHXJ=
EmrfC5gAijXkT9mNr-6joG0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37987937 37407913 36667965 36578092 36648233=20
            36748298 37088248 37338209 37668163 37918058=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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