Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 29 2023 09:29:12

AWUS01 KWNH 290929
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-291300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0375
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
528 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

Areas affected...southern KS/northern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290926Z - 291300Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving convection from far southern KS into
northern OK may generate an additional area or two of flash
flooding with rainfall rates of 1-2 inches in 30 minutes and
localized 2-4 inch totals over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...At 09Z, a small cluster of convection was observed
along the KS/OK border, 10-30 miles west of I-35, tracking slowly
east. MRMS showed 1 hr rainfall over 3 in/hr locally in eastern
Barber County through 08Z tied to a small area of
back-building/training. Since then, an outflow boundary has pushed
out from that region, extending from Wichita to just south of the
KVNX 88D radome. The environment near and ahead of the outflow
boundary was characterized by mostly weak MUCAPE of 600 J/kg or
less but 1.3 to 1.4 inch PWATs (06Z LMN sounding and 08Z SPC
mesoanalysis). In addition, an MCV was observed via local radar
imagery in the northeastern TX Panhandle on the border with OK,
tied to earlier convection which has since dissipated. However,
850 mb flow is 20-30 kt at KICT and KVNX, about 10 kt stronger
than RAP analyses/short-term forecasts, out ahead of the mesoscale
circulation.

Given fairly weak 850-300 mb mean layer winds of ~10 kt from the
west and the relatively strong low level jet in place ahead of the
MCV, overrunning of a subtle theta-e gradient extending from WNW
to ESE across north-central OK and the newly generated outflow
boundary, should continue to support the development of slow
moving convection with potential for 1-2 inches in 30 minutes
across northern OK and far southern KS. A general motion toward
the east is expected with some potential for convection to
back-build toward the south through 13Z.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-1oeeUqwrogBimZAzcBbz0aIemvrIEU-oWwvDW4cRNUTJfZKg_UHEioxvXvVsgxplv0j=
yk04mLvFLAZhG8w_3EbuQwE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37709685 37479639 36739631 35739692 35789799=20
            36659797 37109784 37629731=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.