Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon May 29 2023 07:54:42 AWUS01 KWNH 290754 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-291330- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0374 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023 Areas affected...western VA into northwestern NC Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 290753Z - 291330Z SUMMARY...Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected to impact portions of western VA into northwestern NC over the next 3-6 hours. Rainfall rates peaking between 0.5 and just under 1 in/hr are expected with additional rainfall totals of 1 to about 2 inches along and south of the western VA/NC border. DISCUSSION...Regional radar and lightning imagery over the past hour or so ending at 0730Z showed bands of showers with embedded thunder moving westward through western VA and southern WV, with recent development into NC, north of a GSO-INT-UKF line. Observed rainfall rates with areas that experienced brief training were 0.5 to 0.8 in/hr ending 06Z and 07Z. 850-700 mb winds at KFCX ranged between 20-30 kt from the E/ENE with upslope flow into the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains adding to lift. Between the nose of stronger 925-850-700 mb winds and the 850-700 mb low centered over west-central NC, was a zone of moisture flux convergence which has overlapped well with observed but localized 1-2 inch totals over the past 3 hours in Franklin, Floyd and Montgomery counties. As the mid-upper level low over western SC shifts eastward over the next several hours, the best low level moisture flux convergence is forecast to shift southward into far southwestern VA and far northwestern NC where 500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE was estimated via the 07Z SPC mesoanalysis. Expect increased shower/thunderstorm activity to re-focus farther south into northwestern NC over the next 2-3 hours with potential for peak rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.0 in/hr. 1 to 2 inches of rain (perhaps slightly above 2) are expected to impact locations mainly along and just north of a GSO to UKF line. Farther north and west where FFG values are only 1 inch or less in 3 hours, additional rainfall is expected to remain less than an inch through 13Z for the most part but there could be some slight overlap with the heavier totals expected to the south. Given recent rainfall, potential for runoff will be increased across these locations of VW and NC. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_poVYd4Iq5I5oyfk6558ceIlTXHmCzz_HrYmzkDyLGLbCcIIpC60WzABifVBjmtwRIRX= RzXAWMMrBoXD38cfbvT2M_0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...RAH...RNK... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37088001 36587941 36357933 35947982 35858115=20 36038198 36458195 36748167 37028093=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .