Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 29 2023 07:15:43

ACUS03 KWNS 290715
SWODY3
SPC AC 290714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and strong
gusts are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across the
central and southern High Plains vicinity.

....Central/Southern High Plains...

A closed low and attendant upper trough over the Great
Basin/Southwest states will pivot east/northeast toward the
central/southern Rockies on Wednesday. This will allow for enhanced
southwesterly midlevel flow to overspread the central/southern High
Plains, with stronger vertical shear forecast (0-6 km shear 35-45
kt). At the surface, south/southeasterly low-level flow will
maintain upper 50s to low 60s F boundary-layer dewpoints beneath a
plume of steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km). Vertical shear
will support supercell storms, and elongated hodographs in
combination with favorable thermodynamic profiles will support large
hail potential. Steep low-level lapse rates and some indication of a
dry layer around 700 mb may also support strong outflow winds. As a
low-level jet increases during the evening, upscale growth may occur
as convection develops eastward into western KS and the OK/TX
Panhandles. Some uncertainty in convective coverage and timing of
large-scale ascent overspreading the region will preclude higher
than Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) probabilities at this time.
However, if forecast trends are maintained, an upgrade to Slight
risk (level 2 of 5) will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.

...Leitman.. 05/29/2023

$$

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