Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 29 2023 05:30:43

ACUS01 KWNS 290530
SWODY1
SPC AC 290529

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail
and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon and evening in
parts of the central High Plains into Nebraska and South Dakota.

....Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will be present off the central California
coast. Downstream of the trough, upper-level ridging will modestly
intensify in the Southwest. A minor shortwave is forecast to crest
this low-amplitude ridge and promote stronger mid-level westerlies
across parts of the central High Plains into Nebraska and South
Dakota. At the surface, a weak surface trough will extend from the
central High Plains into the central/eastern Dakotas.

....Central Plains Vicinity...
Storms are expected to develop along the higher terrain in the High
Plains as well as the along the surface trough. Moisture with
westward extent will be more limited. Pockets of 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE and 25-30 kts of shear will promote some risk for marginally
severe hail and strong surface winds gusts. Storm coverage will
likely be maximized along the surface trough. Model guidance
suggests that greater surface heating and upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints are expected to reside in parts of central Nebraska into
south-central/southeastern South Dakota. Around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE
(locally near 2000 J/kg) appears possible by afternoon. Deep-layer
shear will be weaker with eastward extent, but 20-25 kts of
effective shear should support marginally organized updrafts. Large
hail could occur with initial activity, but wind damage will become
the main threat rather quickly given the weakly sheared environment.
Cold pool organization could extend the damaging wind threat into
the early evening if and where it occurs.

...Wendt/Smith.. 05/29/2023

$$

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