Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 29 2023 04:01:04

AWUS01 KWNH 290400
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-290800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0373
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1200 AM EDT Mon May 29 2023

Areas affected...far eastern NM into western TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290359Z - 290800Z

SUMMARY...Training of heavy rain with rates of 1-2 in/hr, possibly
higher, will pose a localized flash flood threat for portions of
far eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle over the next couple
of hours.

DISCUSSION...0345Z radar imagery from KAMA showed a small MCS over
the northern TX Panhandle, with a leading line of convection
oriented generally from east to west, bowing more to the south in
the middle, north of AMA. Given ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the MCS
and infrared satellite imagery showing expanding and cooling cloud
tops, MCS maintenance is expected for at least another 2-3 hours.

Forecast propagation toward the S or SSE is expected to limit the
flash flood threat for most areas, but along the western flank,
overrunning of the the outflow boundary has produced convective
development upstream with MCS movement toward the S or SSE. This
will set up a short term flash flood threat for western portions
of the TX Panhandle and possibly far eastern NM for another few
hours if overrunning of the outflow is able to maintain sufficient
convection given favorable alignment with the steering flow. 1 to
2+ in/hr rainfall rates will be possible, near or in excess of
area FFG given wet antecedent conditions.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!73N_i_akUg8bo5iJ-v9xeU5KYHobf3mBKqCodWnhuP9ZuLHcet2iocjjckmufBlAwJDv=
eHQVGazIvQvlUeIfduidrEs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36380296 36220259 36040226 35220155 34610195=20
            34660263 35240315 35940324=20

=3D =3D =3D
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