Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon May 29 2023 03:26:02

AWUS01 KWNH 290325
FFGMPD
TXZ000-290645-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0372
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Areas affected...west-central TX Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290320Z - 290645Z

SUMMARY...Merging and slow movement of thunderstorms over
west-central TX may generate localized flash flooding with
rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr. Uncertain storm evolution beyond 05Z
limits confidence in the longer term flash flood threat.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery over west-central TX at 03Z
showed a small cluster of thunderstorms over Motley County,
tracking slowly southeastward with MRMS-derived rainfall rates of
1-2 in/hr. This activity has shown neutral to a slight expansion
of colder cloud tops on IR imagery over the past 1-2 hours.
Meanwhile to its SSW, a less intense thunderstorm cluster between
LBB and MAF, oriented NNE to SSW, was tracking toward the east but
warming cloud top trends have generally been observed on IR
imagery. MLCAPE just ahead of these two areas of convection was
estimated to be 500 to ~1000 J/kg via the 03Z SPC mesoanalysis but
with weak inhibition.

20-30 kt of 850 mb flow was observed on the VAD wind plots at KDYX
and KSJT, which should maintain for another 1-2 hours before
possible weakening as indicated by recent RAP forecasts. Corfidi
vectors suggest that if ongoing storms are able to congeal over
northwestern/west-central TX, they should track toward the SE
initially, and eventually south if they are able to persist beyond
05Z. Also beyond 05Z, 850-300 mb winds are forecast to become
fairly light with <10 kt forecast by the RAP, which would support
slow movement of individual cells. With FFG values of only 2
inches in 3 hours for a good portion of west-central TX, flash
flooding will be possible in the short term but storm evolution
beyond ~05Z remains uncertain, as increasing CIN may cause ongoing
convection to weaken substantially. Convective trends will be
continue to be monitored over the next few hours and additional
MPDs sent if needed..

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_OGO1c9nNJpai5E71HHnEoqA2LZS4rggDel4XeSmQoazuCdf6ajZg58GYYO2vL05CZXd=
aDZBF3nbS1xQM_UFbM3zSeY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34230047 34059993 33639950 32739956 32289995=20
            32050045 32140123 32730159 33360156 33700135=20
            34030113 34220074=20

=3D =3D =3D
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