Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0891
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 28 2023 23:53:09

ACUS11 KWNS 282353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282352=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-290115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0891
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Areas affected...OK Panhandle...northern TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 282352Z - 290115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A squall line capable of isolated severe gusts (60-75 mph)
is becoming more likely during the evening.  Large hail is possible
with the discrete supercells ahead of the line.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a developing squall line from far
northeast NM east-northeastward into far southwest KS.  Visible
satellite imagery shows a residual outflow boundary arcing from the
TX Low Rolling Plains northwestward to the western part of the TX
Panhandle and extending northward to the CO/KS/OK border.=20=20

Surface observations indicate relatively moist conditions with lower
60s deg F dewpoints and temperatures in the mid 70s.  RAP forecast
soundings for current surface conditions indicate a very unstable
airmass is in place across the TX Panhandle with MLCAPE around 2500
J/kg.  Although deep-layer shear is marginal for supercells, it is
more than adequate for organized storm structures.  The steep
700-500 mb lapse rates in excess of 8 deg C/km will aid in longevity
of the storm cluster despite an only modest LLJ increase this
evening.  A large hail threat will accompany any discrete updrafts
before additional storm congealing occurs and severe gusts become
the main threat.

...Smith/Grams.. 05/28/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7I87Tc_pO59aLU3yrVCoWLbmBnfOsN9zD6ZNFjz4AD4no-3tCJ5hpch1mu00zN9gTWorlDkqk=
qFDG05b9cfHUL_H-w0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36720309 37260214 37440107 37060057 36340059 35700214
            35830286 36180318 36720309=20


=3D =3D =3D
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