Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 28 2023 19:51:40

ACUS01 KWNS 281951
SWODY1
SPC AC 281950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN
KANSAS SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across western
portions of the Great Plains this afternoon and evening. Hail and
severe gusts will be the main hazards.

....Discussion...
No appreciable changes appear necessary with this outlook update, as
prior areas, and meteorological reasoning, continue to reflect
expected evolution of convection the remainder of the period.

...Goss.. 05/28/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023/

....Central High Plains...
Relatively weak westerly mid-level winds are present today
throughout the Plains states, with a trough moving across NE/KS.  A
band of slightly stronger flow aloft wraps around the south side of
the trough across parts of southern KS/northern OK (25-30 knots at
500mb).  This region is likely to see widely scattered afternoon
thunderstorm development - focused near several weak surface
boundaries and instability gradients.  CAM guidance is diverse in
the details of these storms, but there may be sufficient vertical
shear for isolated organized multicell or perhaps supercell storms
capable of large hail and damaging winds for a few hours.

....Dakotas to Texas...
Surrounding the SLGT risk area, scattered thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon and evening across much of the Plains region from the
Dakotas to west Texas.  It is likely that small areas within this
corridor will see occasional strong to severe storms capable of
gusty winds and hail.  However, a combination of weak forcing
mechanisms and only marginally favorable environment result in
considerable uncertainty of timing/placement details.  Therefore
will cover region with a broad MRGL risk.

....Eastern NC...
A well defined surface low is currently just west of Cape Fear.
Visible satellite imagery shows clearing skies in the northeast
quadrant of the low, where dewpoints in the low 70s will yield at
least marginal CAPE values later today.  However, water vapor
imagery shows considerable dry mid-level air wrapping into the
system, and forecast soundings show slow warming of the 800-600mb
layer.  This should tend to suppress robust convective development
today.

$$

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