Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 28 2023 17:25:10

ACUS02 KWNS 281725
SWODY2
SPC AC 281723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA/WESTERN NEBRASKA AND VICINITY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail
and gusty winds will be possible across parts of the central High
Plains into the Dakotas vicinity Monday afternoon and evening.

....Synopsis...
A relatively weak flow field aloft will prevail across the U.S.
Monday.  The most important feature with respect to the convective
forecast will be a weak trough crossing the central U.S. --
comprised of phased northern- and southern-stream features.  With
this feature remaining weak overall, the surface reflection of the
feature will also remain weak -- largely comprised of a weak
baroclinic zone extending southwestward across the Dakotas/western
Nebraska.

Elsewhere, a rather weak upper low will drift eastward across the
Carolinas/Virginia vicinity, and eventually offshore toward the end
of the period, while a second low shifts slowly southward near/just
off the California coast.

....South Dakota/western Nebraska and surrounding areas...
Daytime heating in the vicinity of a weak surface baroclinic zone
will result in moderate afternoon destabilization, with subsequent,
scattered thunderstorm development expected.  The instability/steep
lapse rates aloft will support occasionally robust updrafts, but
generally modest shear (mid-level flow generally around 25 kt)
should limit updraft longevity/potential severity.  Still, a few of
the strongest cores will be capable of producing hail, and perhaps a
locally strong gust or two.

Some south-southwesterly low-level jet increase during the evening
may permit a bit of clustering of convection, particularly across
the South Dakota area, with therefore limited risk for low-end
severe risk to spread eastward into eastern South Dakota during the
evening before ultimately diminishing.

...Goss.. 05/28/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.