Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 28 2023 15:22:51

AWUS01 KWNH 281522
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-281820-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0368
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1121 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281520Z - 281820Z

SUMMARY...Back building thunderstorms generating rainfall rates of
1.5-2.0"/hr may result in flash flooding over the next couple
hours. Poor drainage areas and more urbanized locations are most
prone to possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...KFDR Doppler radar has been detecting a cluster of
thunderstorms in southwest OK that have developed as a result of
moist 850mb southerly flow intersecting a weak surface trough
south of the Red River. RAP mesoanalysis showed up to 1.5" PWs and
the elevated convection does have 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE
available. Going up through the atmospheric column, the HRRR
showed a highly saturated profile with freezing levels above
11,000 feet, allowing for low-topped but potent thunderstorms
containing warm rainfall processes. These cells should continue
for another hour or two, and one mesonet station reported 1.76" in
an hour near Magnum. Given these observed rainfall rates and the
backbuilding nature of these storms, it is possible soils saturate
quicker and lead to flash flooding. Poor drainage areas and towns
with a greater concentration of hydrophobic surfaces are most
susceptible, with the latter seeing better odds for street
flooding.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5Kn6HHEGcnZojXJ2Cr0D734vaubIvE2jQb2YEGe0_N7HSb2mU3SP3L7bHcL9sAMNFj7W=
lkuitTAb9scZpX6UXr8a-xc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35289972 35289899 35119865 34469866 34309899=20
            34279968 34440059 34710074 35040042=20

=3D =3D =3D
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