Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun May 28 2023 12:43:37 ACUS01 KWNS 281243 SWODY1 SPC AC 281241 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN KS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across western portions of the Great Plains this afternoon and evening. Hail and severe gusts will be the main hazards. ....Plains through this evening... The stagnant large-scale pattern persists with a Rex block from the Great Lakes to the Southeast, though there are some subtle changes underway across the Plains. Small height rises are expected today over the southern Rockies (downstream from a closed low along the CA coast), while convectively-enhanced shortwave troughs move slowly northeast over the central/northern Plains, and southeastward along the middle/lower Rio Grande Valley. The surface lee trough will be loosely in phase with the trailing vorticity lobe aloft this afternoon, though the details of thunderstorm development are uncertain based on any lingering influences of clouds/convective outflow through the day across KS and the TX Panhandle. Assuming sufficient clearing in the wake of the morning convective clusters, additional thunderstorm development will be possible along the lee trough later this afternoon. Vertical shear will be on the lower margins for supercells, so a mixed convective mode with predominately multicell clusters is expected. Steep lapse rates and MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg will support the potential for at least isolated large hail and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph. Overall confidence in the forecast scenario is low, and there is not much difference in the severe threats (generally low end) comparing the Slight risk to areas farther south and north. ....Rio Grande Valley through tonight... The remnants of an overnight MCS continue to move east-southeastward along the lower Rio Grande Valley this morning. Isolated strong wind gusts may occur this morning near Brownsville, with a lull expected thereafter through the afternoon (as a result of the stabilizing effects of this morning convection). Additional storms will likely form across northeast Mexico later this afternoon/evening, and some of this convection could approach the TX border this evening into early tonight. ...Thompson/Broyles.. 05/28/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .