Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 28 2023 06:23:13

AWUS01 KWNH 280623
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-281120-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0367
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
222 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Areas affected...southwestern NE into far northwestern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280620Z - 281120Z

SUMMARY...Approaching line of thunderstorms from eastern CO
expected to pass over southwestern NE with localized 1-2 in/hr
rates. Given 5-11 inches of rain which impacted portions of the
region 48-60 hours ago, sensitivity to flash flooding is increased.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms moving eastward through
eastern CO at 06Z is tracking along the northern edge of MLCAPE
that ranged from 500-1000 J/kg via the 06Z SPC mesoanalysis. An
outflow boundary was noted just ahead of the line of convection,
supporting new updraft generation within a marginally unstable
environment. The region downstream contained 40 kt of southerly
flow at 850 mb as seen on the KGLD VAD wind plot, in excess of the
20-30 kt 850-300 mb wind from the SSW, which could allow for some
short term training as the line likely continues to advance east.

Weak, but sufficient, instability is expected to edge eastward
into southwestern NE ahead of the advancing convective line over
the next couple of hours with either the existing line of
thunderstorms or new development just ahead within the unstable
airmass, allowing for heavy rain beneath a diffluent flow regime
aloft. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible at times and
given this region is sensitive to runoff given heavy rain which
fell late Thursday, flash flooding will be possible. The threat
for heavy rain and flash flooding should advance from west to east
at 20-30 kt, with the flash flood threat possibly ending for the
region by 11Z.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5wDC3rKZc0S2KISta0-s-ZSmn3PSJvJOjI8Cls3X5fJVTQX1m45rV6dDMXpl6GPaKMsS=
twn6ojfIeF2ES77yBZU5EYs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41300098 41130008 40300010 39890052 39740110=20
            39760164 39980197 40670198 41250187=20

=3D =3D =3D
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