Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun May 28 2023 05:43:06 ACUS02 KWNS 280543 SWODY2 SPC AC 280541 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS...WESTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of the central High Plains into the Dakotas vicinity Monday afternoon and evening. ....Northern/Central Plains... A weak mid/upper shortwave trough will develop east across the northern Plains, while another weak shortwave trough moves across TX on Monday. Deep-layer flow will remain modest across the Plains, similar to the previous several days. A surface trough associated with a low over Ontario will shift east across the Dakotas. The surface trough will weaken with southward extent, with a rather nondescript surface pattern over the central Plains. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 50s to low 60s F dewpoints. With a lack of strong mid/upper level forcing and limited surface features to focus convection, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across much of the Plains. Most of this activity will likely remain disorganized and limited in intensity. However, areas of steep midlevel lapse rates and modest vertical shear could support sporadic strong storms. Some increased severe potential could develop across parts of the Dakotas, southwest toward northeast CO, beneath the influence of the weak upper shortwave trough, and along the better defined surface trough. Stronger instability and somewhat stronger vertical shear will overlap across this area, with hail and strong gusts being the main hazards associated any organized and longer-lived convection. ....South Texas vicinity... Some guidance suggests an MCV from remnant overnight convection may move across southern portions of Texas on Monday. Seasonal moisture will be in place with mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints forecast. Lingering morning convection and cloud cover may limit stronger heating, which may result in only weak diurnal destabilization. Given uncertainty in the forecast of the MCV and concern over instability amid generally weak vertical shear, severe probabilities will not be included at this time, though may become necessary in later outlooks depending on trends in forecast guidance and observational trends. ...Leitman.. 05/28/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .