Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 28 2023 05:36:05

ACUS01 KWNS 280536
SWODY1
SPC AC 280534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN KANSAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across western
portions of the Great Plains this afternoon and evening. Hail and
severe gusts will be the main hazards.

....Synopsis...
A blocking upper-air pattern over the eastern U.S. will continue
today as a weak mid-level disturbance moves east across parts of the
southern High Plains, and another disturbance moves slowly east
across the central/northern Great Plains.  Surface high pressure
will remain centered over the Great Lakes to the northwest of a weak
low over the Carolinas.

Southerly low-level flow will maintain a fetch of adequately moist
air from TX northward through the central and northern Great Plains.
 Early day showers/thunderstorms are possible from NE northward into
the Dakotas while cloud debris/isolated storms may be over parts of
northwest TX/south TX at daybreak.

Strong heating is forecast from west TX northward to the Black Hills
as a moderate to strongly unstable airmass (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE)
develops by mid afternoon.  A weak cap by seasonal standards is
expected to erode by mid-late afternoon on the western edge of
richer moisture over the High Plains.  The greatest buoyancy is
progged over the TX Panhandle northward into KS.  Widely scattered
clusters of thunderstorms are forecast by model guidance.  The
modest deep-layer shear will favor a mix of mostly multicells but a
few supercells are possible.  Large hail and severe gusts are the
primary hazards with the stronger storms.  The activity will
gradually weaken during the evening owing to the loss of heating.

...Smith/Wendt.. 05/28/2023

$$

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