Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 28 2023 05:25:16

AWUS01 KWNH 280525
FFGMPD
NCZ000-281020-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0366
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
124 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Areas affected...central/southern NC coastal regions

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280520Z - 281020Z

SUMMARY...Training of heavy rain with rates of 1-2 in/hr, possibly
higher, will pose a localized flash flood threat for portions of
the central and southern NC coast.

DISCUSSION...05Z infrared satellite imagery showed the position of
a coastal low about 60 miles SSE of CHS within a swirl of
relatively warm cloud tops. Colder cloud tops with showers and
embedded thunderstorms were located ahead of the occluded system's
cold and warm fronts and just inland of a coastal trough extending
parallel and just offshore of the NC coast, tied to a somewhat
elongated mid-level vorticity max offshore of the southern NC
coast as seen on water vapor imagery. Radar imagery showed a
broken band of showers near the NC/SC border while another
disorganized band was located between I-40 and Cape Lookout.
Trends in rainfall intensity have increased over the past 1-2
hours for coastal sections of NC as MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg along
and just offshore has begun to advect inland (via SPC mesoanalysis
data).

As the surface low and mid-level vort center track NNE as forecast
by the RAP through 12Z, the coastal trough is forecast to edge
just inland, allowing 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE to move inland to
within ~50 miles of the coast. 25-35 kt of both the 850 mb flow
and 850-300 mb mean layer winds oriented perpendicular to the
coastline will support axes of training/repeating of heavy rain
with rates of 1-2 in/hr given anomalous moisture in place. While
the coverage of these training axes of heavy rain may be limited
overnight, there is the potential for repeating of stronger echoes
to persist long enough to allow localized rainfall rates over 2
in/hr and 5-hr totals of 2-4 inches through 10Z. These rainfall
totals may result in localized flash flooding over any urban or
otherwise hydrologically sensitive locations.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8cdzEiqRkr9IbRI6DNe9pfFPZU9SvBfm9MXHu8vW6ERc06ruat49dWILUkG385EVDTEk=
v_ihlJZMESmey_iz5UbPLsU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35327651 35067605 34857589 34487617 34317693=20
            33737782 33767831 34277862 34797814 35147754=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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