Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 28 2023 01:00:00

ACUS01 KWNS 280059
SWODY1
SPC AC 280058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS...THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
AND FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this
evening across much of the High Plains.

....Northeast CO into the western Dakotas and eastern MT...
An extensive north-south squall line from the MT/ND/SD border
southward into northeast CO will continue to move east through a
moist/unstable airmass this evening.  The 00 UTC Rapid City, SD raob
showed steep lapse rates (700-500 mb 7.7 deg C/km) and moderate
effective shear (25 kt).  The organized squall line will continue to
pose mainly a threat for severe gusts across CO northward into
MT/ND.  Other isolated thunderstorm activity is located over far
eastern CO and east-central MT.  Both hail and wind hazards are
possible with these stronger storms in the near term.  Reference MCD
#888 for short-term details of the severe thunderstorm risk in
eastern MT.

....Southern High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a mid-level shortwave
trough moving northeast across the Sangre de Cristos and eastern CO.
Adequately strong mid to high-level southwesterly flow will aid in
storm organization with a couple of thunderstorm clusters over
eastern NM and the TX South Plains.  Isolated severe may accompany
the stronger storms for the next several hours before storms
gradually weaken through the late evening.

...Smith.. 05/28/2023

$$

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