Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun May 28 2023 00:42:05

AWUS01 KWNH 280042
FFGMPD
NDZ000-MTZ000-280530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0362
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
841 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023

Areas affected...Northeast MT...Western ND...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280045Z - 280530Z

SUMMARY...Multiple bands of fast moving but south to north
training thunderstorms capable of intense rain rates pose
localized 2" in short duration and possible localized flash
flooding risk.

DISCUSSION...RAP analysis and GOES AMVs suggest strong divergent
pattern within the right entrance to the 75kt 3H jet is starting
to lift out of WY into SE MT/NDak supporting broad scale vertical
ascent.  This is helping to unzip convective initiation along
multiple surface convergence bands along the theta-E and moisture
gradient across E MT at this time.  Visible and 10.3um EIR depict
rapid destabilization with numerous overshooting tops.  Deep layer
shear remains nearly unidirectional and though cell motions are
likely to be quick to the northeast, there is good potential for
training thunderstorms along these axis for at least one or two
hours before cold pool generation induces eastward (and westward)
propagation of next line of thunderstorms.  However, the next
updrafts should remain fairly well oriented for continued
repeating.  As such, numerous streaks of enhanced rainfall up to
2" are possible through the early overnight period, much of it
falling in 1-2hrs.  Given FFG values in the area of concern are
less than 2" (and closer to less than 1.5" further west into
northeast MT), there is solid probability for a few incidents of
FFG exceedance. Therefore localized flash flooding is considered
possible.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!932dAX5cw_vgiHE4bo2Jz6M4gAS81Wpr7nvWWGtfg9bjLu42BE6pBJENKHh20RacReRY=
MgD6oLsoA1Vd-21YaImXWB0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   49080480 49040251 48330217 46330257 46100432=20
            46140543 46460595 47980622 48940621=20

=3D =3D =3D
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