Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0884
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 27 2023 20:26:59

ACUS11 KWNS 272026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272026=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-272230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0884
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

Areas affected...Far southeastern New Mexico and southwest TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 272026Z - 272230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage into the evening hours,
with the potential for strong/severe gusts and perhaps isolated
large hail. A watch is being issued shortly.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is gradually increasing in the
vicinity of a north-south-oriented dryline/lee trough in far
southwest TX this afternoon -- where a plume of steep midlevel lapse
rates is evident. During the next few hours, continued diurnal
heating and mesoscale ascent along the dryline should favor an
uptick in storm coverage into the evening hours. Regional VWP
indicates 30-40 kt of midlevel southwesterly flow atop moist
east-southeasterlies (middle/upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints) --
supportive of organized storms given continued diurnal
destabilization (decreasing CINH) east of the dryline.=20=20

Initial storms closer to the dryline may remain somewhat separated
and pose a risk of isolated large hail; however, the steep lapse
rate environment and expected increase in storm coverage should
primarily result in a risk of strong/severe outflow winds owing to
upscale growth with eastward extent this afternoon/evening. A watch
will be issued shortly.

...Weinman/Hart.. 05/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8trOPF0wdwYZX7F21oopJkElwi9ehkDplxrjwAfRbrbaJsrBBREI8Sn9T9hgagWwNNfKvFah9=
1vwq5-61BFSW6rMNZM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

LAT...LON   30480497 31220489 32130473 32410453 32570420 32600376
            32510330 32300307 31940282 31440265 30740256 30030254
            29350271 28940308 28970347 29260408 29640458 30480497=20


=3D =3D =3D
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