Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat May 27 2023 19:43:59 ACUS01 KWNS 271943 SWODY1 SPC AC 271942 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTH PLAINS VICINITY OF TEXAS...SOUTH TO THE RIO GRANDE... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across much of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ....Discussion... The primary change being implemented with this outlook update is the addition of SLGT risk across the Permian Basin/Transpecos regions of Texas, and into the Big Bend area. Widespread convection is initiating over far West Texas, and southward into adjacent northern Mexico. Continued convective increase is expected, with upscale growth into a loosely organized, linear MCS possible. With a few of the strongest storms within the convective cluster likely to be capable of producing hail/wind near or exceeding severe levels -- as suggested by the pre-storm environment, upgrade to SLGT appears warranted at this time. Otherwise, aside from tweaks to the thunder lines, current areas and outlook reasoning continue to reflect current expectations. ...Goss.. 05/27/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023/ ....Eastern NM/West TX... An overnight cluster of thunderstorms has resulted in remnant outflow boundary extending from near Plainview TX westward to Santa Rosa NM, with continued slow southward movement. This boundary is likely to maintain some character through the afternoon and play a role in convective activity. The 14Z HRRR solution appears to have a reasonable handle on this scenario, and develops a cluster of supercells by mid-afternoon near the boundary over eastern NM. These storms will track eastward in a corridor of slightly enhanced/backed low-level winds. Large/very large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. However, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ....Northern High Plains... Similar to yesterday, full sunshine and steep mid-level lapse rates will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain of CO/WY/MT. These storms will spread across the adjacent high plains through the early evening. Moderate CAPE values will promote strong updrafts capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds. However, the main limiting factor will be rather weak bulk shear. Organized multicell storms will likely be the dominant mode, with some clustering expected through the evening. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .