Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0883
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat May 27 2023 19:12:57

ACUS11 KWNS 271912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271912=20
SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-272145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0883
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

Areas affected...eastern Wyoming...adjacent portions of northern
Colorado and southwestern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 271912Z - 272145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorm activity will continue to develop near
and northeast through east of the Laramie Mountains and Front Range
through 3-5 PM MDT, posing a risk for primarily severe hail and
wind.

DISCUSSION...Within surface troughing to the east/northeast of the
Front Range and Laramie Mountains, boundary-layer moisture continues
to slowly increase on south-southeasterly flow.  Coupled with
insolation, beneath thermodynamic profiles characterized by
relatively cool mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates, this
appears to be contributing to the development of moderately large
CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg.  The initiation of scattered
thunderstorms is already underway near the higher terrain, and
inhibition is gradually weakening eastward into the plains.

Beneath 20-30 kt southerly ambient mean flow, propagation off the
higher terrain may initially be slow.  However, forcing for ascent,
associated with at least one perturbation embedded within weak
larger-scale mid/upper troughing across the Great Basin/Rockies, is
expected to contribute to increasingly widespread convection with
consolidating surface cold pools through mid to late afternoon.  As
this occurs, stronger storms will tend to accelerate northeastward
and eastward.

Deep-layer shear beneath 50+ kt flow in the 300-250 mb layer may be
sufficient to support a few supercell structures posing a risk for
severe hail, and perhaps a brief tornado, initially, before activity
grows upscale with a few strong surface gusts likely becoming the
more prominent hazard.

...Kerr/Hart.. 05/27/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6Tg9-1tg-3mCxjmaVVx5ni1q_xh2ymkzLZ7A0UiDb6BmIyd-TqIuEjul2k3SWVMVkisGJEJfQ=
X8a219EhadG_-WtUa8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   43990572 44990427 44280380 42920412 40790421 40550494
            40990539 42040549 42650597 42890635 43990572=20


=3D =3D =3D
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